What is Delhi Reading? “A Billion Butterflies” by Jagadish Shukla

A Billion Butterflies

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Whether or not you know much about climate change, this book is an essential read for anyone who is keen to inform themselves of the technicalities of monitoring weather. Renowned Indian meteorologist, Dr. Jagadish Shukla’s book A Billion Butterflies speaks about the evolution of weather forecasting. The information rich dialogue had a huge turnout, and the author answered questions from over 15 listeners.

At the India International Centre’s book discussion, the following panelists graced the occasion on Wednesday, 19th November 2025:

• Ambassador Shyam Saran, President of IIC
• Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Former Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission of India
• Ajit Seth, Former Cabinet Secretary
• Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary to Government of India Ministry of Earth Sciences

Opening Remarks by Amb. Shyam Saran

Amb. Shyam Saran, introduced the book, calling it an esoteric subject. Dr. Jagadish Shukla’s mastery over the subject has been presented in simple language. The book covers the phenomenon of climate change, offering new perspectives. Amb. Saran himself was the PM Special Envoy and Chief Negotiator at COP 27. Now that climate change is a larger ecological crisis, we cannot separate from other crises. Pollution. Glaciers melting. The butterfly effect is very much prevalent and real For instance, the surface temperature of Somalia coast impacts climate in India. Whether land is dry or moist land, also impacts the monsoons. One has to become aware of those interconnections. He then handed the podium to Dr. Jagadish Shukla who began his presentation.

Prof. Shamika Ravi, Secretary to Govt. of India and part of PM Economic Advisory Council, was also present at the occasion to share her insights and honor the author along with the panelists.

A Billion Butterflies : The Author’s Life Story

Dr. Shukla made a note of his connection with IIC, having heard his first lecture in the same hall 50 years ago. He spoke about his journey from his village to MIT, Princeton and NASA.

What motivated him to write the book? Growing up in his village (Ballia in UP), monsoons were a source of misery due to either floods or draughts. It led Dr. Shukla to wonder “How can i help my village?” He wanted to be able to predict the monsoon as it was causing lot of chaos in his personal life. Prof. Shukla wanted to work on predictability of weather and develop sensitivity to conditions. He had an understanding that small differences today led to big differences tomorrow, i.e. “snowball effect”.

Soon life filled with luck, and he was taught by the same professor who propagated the butterfly effect theory. Even with mathematical equations, there is a limit to predictability. However, Prof. Shukla wanted to work on predicting monsoons. He wanted to study ocean and land effects. Hence, he established the Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA) Interaction.

He got a chance to work on the problem at MIT through his PhD thesis. When it comes to “a life in climate and chaos theory, the key concept was that the weather for 10 days depends on the weather today. As far as ocean and land conditions are concerned, numerical experiments are done using simple models. Imagine, what if there were billions of butterflies. However, still nothing changes in the ocean. Hence the challenge is to make predictions in the midst of chaos (caused from billions of butterflies). And how to be able to predict this chaos beyond 10 days.

The butterfly effect was proposed by two famous meteorologists Lorenz and Charney. When Prof. Shukla’s paper was accepted for oral presentation at MIT, he met Charney there finally. He also worked with Prof. Devendra Lal, who later inspired Al Gore. He met Prof. Syukuro Manabe, the first “climate scientist” to win a Nobel prize.

After returning to India, Dr. Jagadish installed model and simulation systems in Mausam Bhawan, New Delhi. By the time COP 15 took place in Paris in 2015, many people had understood the science of climate change. Prof. Shukla was even harassed to go back to India through protests and false narratives.

How climate change works

In order to publish a book in the US, authors need a book agent. In one such interaction, the publisher asked Dr. Shukla “Why does it get cold at night?”. The author explained that energy coming from the sun is not the only factor. Earth loses 120 trillion watts to space, and we gain an equal amount of energy. The atmosphere creates equilibrium and at that temperature both energies are equal.

The planet Venus has a temperature of 590 degrees. Its atmosphere is filled with CO2 and is much closer to the sun. Contrast that with earth, we release CO2 but due to a peculiar property “Green House Effect”, we gain more and lose less. Hence, global warming is very simply due to an increase in CO2.

Despite all advancements in climate science, predictions are not perfect. when it comes to India, we have highest mountains in the north and there is no data for Arabian Sea. Hence, we need to put in lot more effort to make climate models. Rainfalls also have a very complex structure, and we have to account for all global conditions.

in 1877, there was a huge drought in India, and it is widely believed that “democracy will never have famines”. It is only 100 years later we learned why there was a huge drought. In current times, considerable progress has been made. Whether it is seasonal or overall climate change, the science behind it is simple : we must reduce Green House Gases (GHGs) and prevent deforestation.

When we speak of global warming, we can say the heat from the sun is absolutely negligible. Volcanic eruptions are also negligible. So how can we adapt and mitigate? The fact is that India has no trajectory for coal reduction. Though we stand 23rd in ranking of green energy, we are doing fairly well. However, the main problem is in the US. The dilemma is about how to manage climate change. But how do we do both – development and mitigation? Hence, we need a proper climate action plan.

Study of Climate Change Models

There are real challenges in seasonal conditions. Hence, we need better models.

While weather depends on initial conditions for today, Seasonal variations depend on boundary conditions. When it comes to ocean n land, climate also depends on external forces like sun n volcano. At the same time, we humans have also become external forces

When Prof. Shukla began working with children in his village, he wanted 1000s of children to know that it’s possible to work on monsoons. He wanted his work to serve as an encouragement to the younger generation. As Prof. Shukla believes, while climate change is the biggest problem in the world, inequality and poverty are just as serious problems for humanity.

Meteorology work in India

Many advancements have occurred in India in the last 2 decades in Monsoon prediction and rainfall patterns.

A Billion Butterflies: Closing Remarks by Amb. Shyam Saran

Towards the end, Amb. Shyam Saran appreciated the thought-provoking presentation by Prof. Shukla, applauding the trajectory of his journey from Ballia to MIT. He mentioned that his pioneering work serves as an inspiration for young people. “Luck always favours the brave”. Some of the important observations he made from the presentation is that we need to understand why climate change is taking place. GHG and destruction of forests are important. Points about Paris agreement. Two biggest carbon sinks are forests and oceans. And both are not contributing to climate change. To conclude, we are facing a dire situation and the book offers tremendous insight into how our world works.

Observations by Ajit Seth

Former Cabinet Secretary Ajit Seth thanks Prof. Shukla for insights into his world. In the backdrop of COP 30 taking place in Brazil at the time, Prof. Shukla’s contributions to predictions are being recognized world over. “A Billion Butterflies” is a crucial book about how scientific enquiry evolves. The book also touches upon how good mentors make a difference.

Mr. Seth also spoke of the concept of chance and necessity, the readiness to challenge dogmas of accepted wisdom. He also began to think of James Watson (Watson n Crik) and Richard Feynman. It is imperative to understood how scientific hypothesis are born. It enriches our understanding.

Prof. Shukla was also part of the team when the Supercomputer was setup in India. His contribution to weather forecasting is not confined to climate change alone. It helped advance the cause of climate adaptation.

Mr. Seth appreciated other activities about betterment of Ballia village. He also remarked that Climate science knowledge is not limited to elite institutions. HE said there is also equal need to enhance Urban infrastructure n drainage systems were not built for climate phenomena like storm surges. Flooding. Cyclones. Much more challenges will occur in future.

Observations by Montek Singh Ahluwalia

He picked up from what’s been said. He hailed the globally distinguished meteorologist and his inspiring story of individual achievements. He urged the publisher and author to get a version of the book done in Hindi to inspire children in villages of India. Dr. Ahluwalia went on to quote the Talisman by MK Gandhi, “When you’re in doubt, think of the poorest person you know and whether he would benefit from your actions. And your doubts will disappear.

He shared his own experience: “When we went to ask for supercomputers to predict seasonal change, i accompanied the then PM Rajiv Gandhi, as part of the delegation. The US reps thought we were asking for supercomputers for nuclear use!”

“At a global level, predictions are relational and involve complex regression models. Pressure differential between Tahiti and Peru are studied under El Nino Phenomenon. It is not just a causal model. In 1986. Without supercomputers, this was not possible. Prof. Jagadish was the only “US guy” who could operate the Supercomputer.”

“When Manmohan Singh was the PM in 2011, he went to Washington DC. In 2006, after installing Kray computer in 1989, he said, “world’s biggest democracy is working with oldest weather forecasting model”. While the rest of the world had moved, he wondered the speed with which others had moved ahead, even though our scientists have much more exposure compared to their peers outside”.

“When Shukla ji worked in MIT, he went there on a scholarship. Now Chinese are sending students on govt money. They don’t rely on scholarship from US. That leads to high quality scientific research from young scientists. Not just funding, but also flexibility.”

Montek Singh Ahluwalia also spoke about scientific work in agriculture field. “Work being done at IIT Ropar, where a monitor hangs around cows’ neck. It takes bodily measurements for the cow – determine when cow would be most receptive to artificial insemination. It
sends a message to mobile. I asked if they are exchanging knowledge with nearby PUSA agriculture university in Punjab. However, they didn’t get approval from Director to visit the campus. Hence, we need flexibility and priorities.”

“It is important to have access to people abroad. Whether it be the Indo-US nuclear deal between George Bush and Manmohan Singh. Many people in US administration were opposed to it. Even if they didn’t agree to it, but President said we should do it anyway quite decisively”

“Jagadish moved from weather forecasting to climate change. With cumulative evidence, he became convinced of climate change. Even when vested interest in US turned against him, and he saw lobbying from the fossil fuel industry, use of public grants n funds to jeopardize industry. But Jagadish took it calmly. He got a letter from President Obama who shared opposite views on climate change”.

A Billion Butterflies : QnA with audience

Before i could get my copy of the book signed, i asked few questions to the author about Climate Satellites being developed by ISRO such as INSAT series are accounting for the “lack of data” in Arabian Sea. In the audience, there were several experts from climate change and from institutions doing key work on weather monitoring.

I also noticed the dissimilarities between the book covers of the copies on sale vs. the book cover from Prof. Shukla’s presentation slide.